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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Prediction Method: DBM + ESWF
Prediction Method Note:

Model & CME input parameters:

CME take-off date & UTC time: 05.09.2017 at 02h:00min
γ = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 400-450 km/s,
R0 = 30 rSun, v0 = 700-1000 km/s, λ = 30°, φCME = 15°
Rtarget = 1.01 AU, φtarget = 0°

Lead Time: 36.80 hour(s)
Difference: -6.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2017-09-05T10:20Z

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